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A GIFT SEED

Objective 4

Economics & Sustainability

Leadership

Dr. Justin Baker (Objective Leader), Dr. Justin Whitehill, Dr. Richard Venditti

Objective Goal & Deliverables

GOAL: Evaluate the potential economic impact of genetic improvement on the US Christmas tree industry and evaluate overall benefit for pest an disease management practices.

DELIVERABLES

  1. Economic potential for the U.S. Christmas tree industry to become carbon negative and sustainable.
  2. Economic impact of genetic improvement on the U.S. Christmas tree industry.
  3. Economic feasibility assessment of waste products from Christmas tree production as an alternative income stream for the Christmas tree industry.
  4. Recommendations for management practices and policy design of the U.S. Christmas tree industry to support development of sustainability or climate-smart commodity certification schemes.

Objective Activities

Each of the following activities will contribute to the generation of the Objective 4 deliverables listed above.

The main focus of Activity 4.1. is developing a techno-ecnomic analysis of the project and its implications.

The model will be developed to guide process design and experimental parameters, and will be broken down into two main parts–a Christmas tree market analysis (Sub-Activity 4.1.1.) and a Christmas tree waste byproduct market analysis (Sub-Activity 4.1.2.). Using qualitative surveys, the Objective 4 team will assess social, environmental, and economic sustainability of management practices and end-products comparing the economic and environmental outputs for real versus artificial trees. Additionally, through use of targeted interviews the Objective 4 team will gain insights from key Christmas tree waste material suppliers and recyclers of those materials to develop a baseline understanding of the critical challenges that exist, benchmark costs, and understand logistical requirements. Data gained from these inquiries will be used to construct a thorough techno-economic analysis of A GIFT SEED.

The main focus of Activity 4.2. is performing life cycle assessments of control versus genetically improved Christmas trees.

The Objective 4 team will develop a cradle to grave environmental life cycle assessment of Christmas trees and model several scenarios focused on tree genetics. Unimproved versus genetically improved trees will include an end-of-life processing step for waste materials generated during growth and maintenance. Evaluation of high-value metabolites in the trees will be performed to help gain understanding of the impact of genetic modification on the overall environmental footprint. Through this assessment, the Objective 4 team will also be able to identify areas of the project for further research and improvement.

The main focus of Activity 4.3. focuses on economic modeling.

The Objective 4 team will complete a baseline assessment to define the current state of management practices and other supply side components (e.g., recycling/waste infrastructure), as well as current market conditions for all Christmas tree related commodities and associated climate footprints. Using integrated modeling approaches adapted from the forest sector, the A GIFT SEED economics team will project regional U.S. Christmas tree inventories, harvest patterns, and market dynamics under alternative levels of demand growth, comparing outcomes under baseline management. The Objective 4 team will use projections will be used to calibrate benefit assumptions by production pathway for decision support tools or Christmas tree growers and other stakeholders involved in production, transport, sale, and disposal of Christmas trees. Modeling will also support supplemental analysis around policy design to complement improved practice adoption.

Year 1 Progress

For Activity 4.1, a literature review of Christmas tree LCAs was performed to compare against A GIFT SEED project preliminary result. Prior LCAs have compared the GWP impacts and break-even points of natural and artificial Christmas trees, employing different system boundaries, waste management practices, and geographic contexts. An early Canadian LCA by Ellipsos (2009) compared 7-ft natural and artificial trees and reported a ~20-year break-even point. Notably, the natural-tree scenario included partial energy recovery rather than landfill-only disposal.