Our work connects forest growth and inventory analytics with economic and financial modeling. We evaluate market dynamics in a changing world, the impact of environmental and energy policy on forest management, and how global change drivers influence local markets and resource management opportunities. Our tools and expertise provide rigorous, policy-relevant insights for landowners, industry, and decision-makers worldwide.
Mission and Goals
The Southern Forest Resource Assessment Consortium (SOFAC) develops forest sector market models for application to forest resource assessments in the South, U.S., and the World. SOFAC modelers and members will be able to use the SOFAC suite of models and research to simultaneously project timber inventory, supply, and prices for a variety of regions and a variety of timber products across the South. SOFAC will continue cooperative university-industry-public agency cooperation in southern and national forest sector economic modeling, enhancing graduate instruction in forest economics and modeling.
Upcoming Events
We are excited to announce the dates and agenda for our 2026 Annual Technical Meeting. The event will be in the Plant Sciences Building at NC State on May 13-14. We are covering topics from SRTS improvements, mill closures, and new research from our members. We hope to see you there!
Recent blog posts
- 2026 SOFAC Annual Meeting: Takeaways (Justin Baker, November 3, 2026)
- Network Analysis of Mill Procurement Zones and Resource Competition — Part 3 (Richard Manner, July 21, 2026)
- Network Analysis of Mill Procurement Zones and Resource Competition – Part 2 (Richard Manner, June 11, 2026)
- Network Analysis of Mill Procurement Zones and Resource Competition – Part 1(Richard Manner, June 4, 2026)
Research Applications
SOFAC affiliates have completed recent studies on topics such as new forest products processing capacity or closures, growth and removal cycles, wood chip demand, bioenergy, wood pellets, and drivers of land use change. We are actively modeling the market and resource implications of using more roundwood for bioenergy (including the impact of state, federal, and EU policies); the effects of holding more sawtimber for longer periods; evaluating the effects of carbon policies on southern U.S. forests; and assessing the impacts of forest market structure on timberland investments.
Recent research efforts led by SOFAC faculty affiliates cover the following topics:
- Projecting alternative forest sector futures in the Southern U.S.
- Forest carbon management and policy analysis
- Forest bioenergy analysis and modeling
- Identifying hotspots for new forests and silvicultural investments
- Projecting global forest product trade flows
- Exploring interactions between forests and water resource management
- Modeling the potential implications of environmental change on forest management and markets
2025 Highlights
In addition to another successful year of Technical and Annual meetings, SOFAC affiliates had a productive year with many achievements contributing to the research on forest sector modeling. In 2025 alone, SOFAC affiliates published 4 journal articles, gave 15 presentations, attended 12 conferences, and received 2 grants and awards. An exhaustive list of these accomplishments can be found here
Models
The core SOFAC modeling framework is the SubRegional Timber Supply (SRTS) Model, which is a bio-economic model that integrates forest inventory and analysis data and economic principles to estimate inventory, supply, demand, and price trends.
SOFAC integrates currently available forest resource data from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program and economic theory to model timber supply, demand, and prices in the South by local area; analyze the status of southern timber supply periodically; and analyze the impacts of new market and policy factors on timber supply.
Models that are linked to SRTS include modules that periodically collect and update the USDA Forest Service FIA data. Further, SRTS is linked to other economic frameworks that provide important data elements, including projections of:
- Land use change
- Pine plantation responses to price changes
- Timber demand and removals
- Climate impacts on forest productivity
This suite of models is then used to project timber supply at the regional to local level under a range of economic and policy scenarios in the South, with occasional applications in the Northeast and Midwest.
In addition to SRTS, SOFAC affiliates work with a wide range of economic modeling tools, ranging from spatially explicit frameworks to global models of forest product markets and land use. These models include:
- The Global Timber Model (GTM)
- The US Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM)
- The Land Use and Resource Allocation (LURA) Model
- The Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM)
SOFAC affiliates also perform timber investment and production economics studies are performed periodically with graduate students, including analysis of global timber investments, logging capacity, biomass harvesting contracts, and timber market structure.
Affiliates
Justin S. Baker, Director of SOFAC and Associate Professor of Forest Resource Economics (NCSU)
Robert Abt, Principal SRTS Developer and Professor of Forest Economics
Ray Sheffield, FIA Scientist
Olakunle Sodiya, PhD Student (NCSU)
Matt Clutter, PhD Student (NCSU)
Richard Manner, SOFAC Research Associate and PhD Student (NCSU)
Gaurav Dhungel, Postdoctoral Scholar (NCSU)
Madisen Fuller, Postdoctoral Scholar (NCSU)
Past Affiliates
David Rossi, Forest Economist
Sarah Puls, Sustainability Standards Manager (American Wood Council)
Kelley McCarter, Freelance writer and educational professional